Doctor Manpower, 1975-2000: Alternative Forecasts and Their Resource Implications
This paper is concerned with forecasting the supply of doctors in the national health service of great britain during the years up to 2000. Within the limits of the poor data set which is available we have sought to analyse the characteristics of the total of the nhs doctor stock of great britain in the period 1975-2000, the regional distribution of medical manpower, the distribution of medical man- power amongst specialities, the career structure of doctors in the hospital service, and the resource implications of some alternative policies.
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300 FOREIGN BORN age structure alternative forecasts anaesthetics analysis assumed assumptions best guess Britain British and Irish career choice career structure cent changes column community medicine CONSULTANT GRADE costs data stock DHSS distribution of doctors doctor manpower doctors aged East Anglia emigration estimate expenditure female doctors female intake female participation flows foreign born doctors foreign males future geriatrics graduates Gynaecology immigration increase inequality inflow intake to medical IRISH BORN Irish doctors Irish Foreign Irish Republic junior hospital doctors large number manpower forecasting medical school output migration National Health Service number of consultants number of doctors orthopaedic surgery overseas patterns percentage policy makers population practitioners problem ratio regions of England resource consequences resource implications rheumatology Scotland Scottish SENIOR REGISTRAR GRADE SHMOs shortage specialties statistics stock and flow subconsultant Table Thames areas total doctor stock total number total stock University of York Wales Wessex West Midlands