East Asia's Potential for Instability & Crisis: Implications for the United States and Korea, Volume 119
Jonathan D. Pollack, Hyun-Dong Kim
RAND, Jan 1, 1995 - Political Science - 247 pages
Revised versions of papers first presented at a conference jointly sponsored by RAND's Center for Asia-Pacific Policy and the Sejong Institute in Santa Monica, California, in February 1995. The papers fall into five categories: China's future, regional military capabilities, future international economic arrangements and trends, the future of the U.S.-Korean alliance, and the future of U.S.-Japan relations. The papers find much cause for optimism, although the analyses highlight a wide spectrum of possibilities and contingencies that could develop in a broader process of political, economic, and security realignment. There are also some more negative scenarios.
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agreement aircraft allies American APEC ASEAN Asia-Pacific region bilateral challenge China Chinese Cold Cold War concern conflict continued cooperation costs crisis critical defense deficits Deng Xiaoping Deng's destabilizing domestic DPRK East Asian East Asian countries economic growth effects emergence example exports foreign policy free trade future Gerald Segal gional global increased interests issues Japan Japanese Jiang Zemin Korean peninsula leader Li Peng maintain major ment mili military capabilities Military Expenditures military technology multilateral NAFTA negotiations neighbors nomic North Korea Northeast Asia nuclear operations Pacific party peace percent political possible post-Cold post-Deng potential developments pressures Pyongyang reform regime regional stability relations Robert Gilpin role scenario security alliance Sejong Institute significant South Soviet strategy succession successor leadership Taiwan threat threaten tion trading system trends U.S. economic U.S. forces U.S. military U.S. trade undermine unilateral United weapons Zhu Rongji