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DYNAMIC PROPERTIES OF A CONDENSED VERSION OF
EFFECTS OF AGGREGATION OVER TIME ON DYNAMIC CHAR
AN ECONOMETRIC MODEL OF BUSINESS CYCLES
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aggregate analysis annual auto-regressive scheme average lag billion business cycles business-cycle CHART coefficients components Constant Adjustments consumer durables corporate profits country member banks cyclical deflator dependent variable dummy variables dynamic Econometrica economic employment endogenous Error Value Error ex ante forecasts ex post forecasts exogenous variables fitted period forecast error forecast period frequency Friend-Taubman Fromm Model Geoffrey Moore Goldfeld gross national product Howrey Implicit price deflator important indicators instrumental variables interest rate inventory investment Klein Model labor least squares linear Liu Model Mean-Squared Errors method naive model null hypothesis OBE Model output plant and equipment plim predictive performance price level Quarter of Forecast quarterly econometric models quarterly models Real consumer Reduced-form estimate regression roots sample period sector serial correlation simulations spectrum statistical structural change structural equations Table TCLE tion TSLS Value Error Value wage rate Whar Wharton Model Wharton-EFU Model