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AN ECONOMETRIC MODEL OF BUSINESS CYCLES 2
Evaluation of Forecasts
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2imulations 2odel actual series adjustment amplitudes autocorrelated shocks average billions of dollars Brookings Model business cycles cent changes CHART coincident columns control solution Cycle length cyclical dummy variables durables econometric models economic endogenous equation First quarter errors estimated ex post exogenous variables fixed investment fluctuations forecasts Fifth quarter forecasts Fourth quarter forecasts Second quarter forecasts Third quarter Fourth quarter forecasts frequency GNP series Gross National Product Implicit price deflator interest rates lags length in quarters levels Mean Absolute Error mean square errors OBE Model Personal consumption expenditures predictions quarter forecasts Fourth quarter forecasts Second quarter forecasts Sixth quarter forecasts Third ratios real GNP reference peaks reference turns relative root mean square runs sample period Second quarter forecasts serial correlation simulated series Single equation Sixth quarter forecasts spectral stochastic simulations Table Third quarter forecasts tions trends turning points unemployment rate values Wharton Model