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AN ECONOMETRIC MODEL OF BUSINESS CYCLES
Evaluation of Forecasts
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5odel actual series adjustment amplitudes average billions of 1958 billions of dollars Brookings Model business cycles cent changes CHART columns control solution correlated shocks Cycle length cyclical declines dummy variables durables econometric models economic endogenous equation First quarter errors estimated ex post exogenous variables fixed investment fluctuations forecasts Fifth quarter forecasts Fourth quarter forecasts Second quarter forecasts Third quarter Fourth quarter forecasts frequency GNP series Gross National Product Implicit price deflator income interest rates lags length in quarters levels mean square errors OBE Model Personal consumption expenditures predictions quarter forecasts Fourth quarter forecasts Second quarter forecasts Sixth quarter forecasts Third ratios real GNP reference peaks reference turns relative root mean square runs sample period Second quarter forecasts serial correlation simulated series Sixth quarter forecasts spectral stochastic simulations Table Third quarter forecasts tion trends turning points unemployment rate values Wharton Model