Economic and fiscal outlook
The Stationery Office, Nov 29, 2010 - Business & Economics - 156 pages
The Office for Budget Responsibility was established to provide independent and authoritative analysis of the UK's public finances. Part of this role includes producing the official economic and fiscal forecasts. This report sets out forecasts for the period to 2015-16. The report also assesses whether the Government is on course to meet the medium-term fiscal objectives and presents preliminary observations on the long-run sustainability of the public finances. Since the June forecast, the UK economy has recovered more strongly than initially expected. The GDP growth was greater than expected in both the 2nd and 3rd quarters, but that unemployment levels have risen to levels that the June forecast did not anticipate until the middle of 2012. In general the world economy has also grown more strongly. CPI inflation has remained slightly higher than expected in June, whilst public finances have performed as forecast. The interest rates on UK debt are lower than in June. The OBR forecasts that the economy will continue to recover from the recession, but at a slower pace than the recoveries of the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s. The publication is divided into 5 chapters with two annexes.
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Developments since the last forecast
Performance against the Governments fiscal objectives
Annex A Spending Review policy measures
AME margin assumed assumptions billion business investment capital cent of GDP central forecast CGNCR changes components contribution conventional gilts costs council tax CPI inflation current expenditure cyclically-adjusted current budget earnings growth economic determinants effect estimate expected exports fall fan chart financial sector fiscal aggregates fiscal forecast forecast in June forecast period FTSE All-share index GDP deflator GDP growth gilt rates government employment Government's growth rate higher HM Treasury HMRC households impact income increase interest rates interim OBR interim OBR's June June Budget forecast June forecast lower medium term National Accounts nominal GDP November forecast OBR's June Budget offset outlook output gap overall percentage points potential output PSNB PSND public finances public sector public sector net quantitative easing quarter of 2010 RDEL rebalancing reduce reflects revised rH rH rH scenario sector net borrowing sector net debt Spending Review Table tax credits third quarter uncertainty weaker