Effects of reservoir recreation development upon rural residential property values
Concern over the need to provide open space in communities for recreation and other uses and to estimate the public values involved is apparent to regional planners. This need, particularly evident in natural resource planning, indicates that more sophisticated analytical techniques be developed. The primary thrust of this study is to develop a two-part economic model with which recreational-environmental effects upon rural residential nonfarm property values can be estimated. The first part estimates values of properties that are in proximity to and are influenced by the recreational-environmental resources and the second part estimates values that are not in proximity to and are not influenced by such resources. The model's results are the differences in those value estimates. In each part of the model, multiple regression equations are used to express the relationships between property values and three common characteristics of property--neighborhood factors, intrinsic nature of the property, arid access to economic and social activities The study analyzes the variables used in the model, explains why they were selected, and describes the variables effect upon property values. Characteristics measuring reservoir influence, particularly distance to reservoir, are analyzed in detail. There are some reservoir influenced and some non-influenced residential properties in the rural portion of central Lane County; included in this area are five U. S. Army Corps of Engineers reservoir recreation developments. Properties in this area have similar characteristics and access conditions and appear to be representative of other rural residential areas of western Oregon and western Washington. Two data sets are developed and several variables, models, and statistical formulations are tested. Two revised models are selected as the "best" estimates. The reservoir model selected has seven independent variables, with the coefficients of five variables being statistically different from zero at the one percent level of probability; the R2 value is 0.7755. The non-reservoir model has six variables and the R2 value is 0.5776. In this model the coefficients of three variables are statistically different from zero at the one percent level, and those of two variables are statistically different from zero at the five percent level of probability. Reservoir size, per se, has no apparent influence upon property value and the distance of zero reservoir impact is estimated to be 2.1 miles. Measured in 1970 dollars, reservoir influenced properties were valued $2,919 greater per property than non-reservoir influenced properties; on a per acre basis the difference was $3,591. The transferability of the general model to another area is tested, an ex post analysis of a project completed in 1941 is demonstrated, and an impact and benefit estimate is calculated. The study sought to improve impact analyses of reservoir recreation developments. The theoretical framework and this analysis has been concerned essentially with demand factors. Future research should improve understanding of the supply function and should facilitate use of the model.
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IIL EMPIRICAL PROCEDURE
Discussion of Variables
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acres analyzed appraisal Calapooia River central city ceteris paribus data sub-set different from zero distance of zero Distance to central distance to nearest distance to reservoir economic model effects environmental environmental-amenity factors Fern Ridge Lake impact area impact distance improve income increase independent variables Knetsch land values Lane County level of probability linear regression measure miles modified form multiple regression nearest town neighborhood lots null hypothesis number of rooms obtained Oregon Oregon State University partial regression coefficients population property price Real Estate Characteristics reciprocal form recreational-environmental resources reservoir distance variable reservoir influence variables reservoir model reservoir recreation developments reservoir size variable reservoir variable residence residential lots residential property values revised data set road frontage rural residential properties sample set selected significant statistically different study area tested total number U.S. Army U.S. Senate value of neighborhood variable in reciprocal variable indicated Washington County X7 Distance zero reservoir impact