El Niño and world primary commodity prices: warm water or hot air?
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 1998 - Climatic changes - 25 pages
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agricultural raw material air pressure anomalies appears to account average CPI inflation Commodity Price Index commodity price inflation commodity price measure confidence intervals consumer price inflation CPI inflation rate current El Nino David Legler econometric models economic variables economically-important and statistically-significant effects on world ENSO intensity ENSO measure estimated effects Federal Reserve System Finance Discussion Papers forecast errors Granger causality IMF Commodity Price impulse response Indonesia inflation about 3-1/2 inflation and economic inflation and world intensity sea surface International Finance Discussion models include continuous Nino and world Nino appears Nino events non-oil primary commodity Pacific Ocean panels percentage points price inflation movements prices and economic primary commodity prices real commodity price real non-oil primary sea surface temperature sea-level air pressure Southern Oscillation SST measure statistically-significant effects Table 2a temperature and sea-level western regions world commodity prices world consumer price world economic activity world prices World Primary Commodity world real non-oil