El Niño and World Primary Commodity Prices: Warm Water Or Hot Air?, Issues 2000-2203
International Monetary Fund, IMF Institute, 2000 - Climat - Changements - Aspect économique - Modèles économétriques - 34 pages
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1.8 Soybean 20 percent agricultural raw material anomaly measure Beverages boldface indicates significance Cocoa Tea Coconut Oil commodity price indexes Commodity Price Inflation commodity price measure consumer price inflation contribution of SST Dashed lines denote David Legler econometric economic variables effects of ENSO effects on commodity effects on G-7 ENSO and world ENSO appears ENSO events ENSO intensity ENSO measures ENSOt Error Variance Attributable estimated effects exogenous Figure Fish Meal Forecast Error Variance G-7 countries Granger causality Groundnut Oil IMF Commodity Price impulse response impulse response functions inflation and economic Inflation and GDP International Financial Statistics K-step-ahead Forecast Error Maize measure of ENSO metals Nifia Nino events non-oil primary commodity Palm Oil panel percent level Percentage of K-step-ahead prices and economic primary commodity prices real commodity price Response of Commodity sea surface temperature Soybean Oil SST anomalies SST measure Surprise Percent Table weather world commodity prices world economic activity