Evidence-Based Technical Analysis: Applying the Scientific Method and Statistical Inference to Trading SignalsEvidence-Based Technical Analysis examines how you can apply the scientific method, and recently developed statistical tests, to determine the true effectiveness of technical trading signals. Throughout the book, expert David Aronson provides you with comprehensive coverage of this new methodology, which is specifically designed for evaluating the performance of rules/signals that are discovered by data mining. |
Contents
The Illusory Validity of Subjective Technical | |
The Scientific | |
The Scientific Method and Technical Analysis | |
Statistical Analysis | |
Hypothesis Tests and Confidence Intervals | |
DataMining Bias The Fools Gold of Objective | |
The Problem of Erroneous Knowledge in Objective | |
Objective TA Research | |
An Effect With Two Causes | |
Dealing With The DataMining BIAS | |
Theories of Nonrandom Price Motion | |
Index | |
Case Study Results and the Future of | |
Proof That Detrending Is Equivalent | |
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Common terms and phrases
behavioral finance best rule biased binary bootstrap Chapter chart cognitive compute conclusion confidence interval confirmation bias correlation daily return data mining data-mining bias defined detrended deviation earned error estimate evaluated evidence example expected return factors false falsifiable financial markets forecast frequency distribution future heuristic hindsight bias hypothesis test illusory correlations illustrated in Figure intuitive investors judgment knowledge large number Law of Large logical look-back span mean return method moving average nonrandom null hypothesis number of observations number of rules objective observed performance occur out-of-sample outcomes output values p-value percent performance statistic population parameter predictive power premise price changes price movements probability problem profitable Psychology random variable rate of return rational relative frequency risk rule’s rules tested sample mean sample statistic sampling distribution scientific short position signals statistical inference statistical significance strategies subjective technical analysis testable theory threshold trading trend true valid zero