Farmland prices: an example of economic forcasts, uses, and limitations
Karl Gertel, United States. Dept. of Agriculture. Economic Research Service. Resources and Technology Division
United States Dept. of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, Resources and Technology Division, 1988 - Business & Economics - 26 pages
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actual land prices adaptive expectations affect land prices alternative 1A asset returns assets per acre b2LogRt Box-Jenkins capitalization rate coefficients for returns constant capitalization current returns deflated model econometric forecasts econometric model economic forecasts equation 11 estimated expansion buyers expected returns expected value explanatory variables farm assets farm real estate farmland prices Federal land bank five SIC's Forecast land price forecasting literature inflation rate land bank rate land market participants land price forecasts land returns loan repayment capacity Loga LogPt Logut numbers predictions price of land price per acre production expenses random walk rational lag model real estate loans real interest rates regression repay farm real repayment capacity index returns and interest returns to assets returns to farm returns to farmland returns to land rise sample period trend in farmland trends in returns U.S. average U.S. Department U.S. farmland underestimate USDA's weighted mean year-to-year year's land price