Fiscal Monitor, October 2012: Taking Stock: A Progress Report on Fiscal Adjustment

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International Monetary Fund, Oct 8, 2012 - Business & Economics - 114 pages
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With growth weakening in many parts of the world and downside risks on the rise, fiscal consolidation remains challenging. However, considerable progress has been made in strengthening fiscal accounts following their sharp deterioration in 2008-09. This issue of the Fiscal Monitor takes stock of this progress, focusing on its size, composition, and implications for employment and social equity. The issue finds that most countries--and especially advanced economies--have made significant headway in rolling back fiscal deficits, but that efforts at controlling debt stocks are taking longer to yield results. The mix of revenue and expenditure policies employed by countries with sizable fiscal consolidation needs has differed, with advanced economies in general relying more on spending retrenchment than emerging markets and low-income countries. Both spending and revenue measures have important implications for employment and social equity, the issue finds, and these implications need to be taken into account if the large consolidation efforts underway are to be sustainable.

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The Fiscal Outlook
A Progress Report on Fiscal Adjustment
Fiscal Adjustment Market Conditions and Fiscal Positions
Phasing of Fiscal Adjustment
Cumulative Change in Gross Debt to GDP since the Start of Recessions
Gross Debt to GDP Level and Change 7 Number of Countries With IncreasingDecreasing Gross Debt to
Interest RateGrowth Differential 2012
Number of Countries With Budget Balance Rules Accounting for the Cycle
Moving Forward
Fiscal Indicators Index by Region 200212
Sovereign Bond Yields and Average Bond Maturity
Concessional Financing
Financial Sector Support Measures 23 Eurosystem Other Claims on Banks
ModelBased Primary Balance and CAPB Needed to Reduce Debt
Postrestructuring Losses and Domestic Investors

Decomposition of Gross Debt Accumulation 201113
Actual and ModelBased Sovereign Bond Yield Spreads
Real Sovereign Bond Yields 12 Advanced Economies Interest Expenditure
Change in Revenue Expenditure and the Cyclically Adjusted Primary Balance 200913
Present Discounted Value of Projected Pension Spending Reductions from Pension Reforms 201050
Change in Revenue
Changes in Revenue and Expenditure 200913
Revenue and Expenditure Components Ranked According to Their Expected Long Term Impact on Output
Initial Fiscal Position and Output Recovery Rate
Time to Recovery and Initial Conditions
Change in Unemployment Cyclically Adjusted Balance and the Gini Coefficient 2007
Distributional Consequences of Alternative Fiscal
Methodological and Statistical Appendix

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