Forecasting: An Appraisal for Policy-Makers and Planners
Energy needs... oil supplies... inflation rates... the demand for new homes... in concerns like these, forecasting plays a crucial role. Forecasts not only determine how billions of dollars will be spent but also commit national policies far into the future; yet, no one really knows how to judge the reliability of forecasts. In this innovative study, William Ascher examines the records of expert forecasting of national trends in population, economics, energy, transportation, and technology over a fifty-year period. The results help to identify both the accuracies and hidden biases of forecasting techniques, information that should be of vital interest to all policy-makers and planners.
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LibraryThing ReviewUser Review - jcvogan1 - LibraryThing
Book provides an overview of major areas of forecasting: demographic, economic, energy, transport, and technologic. Book is written for a policy-maker audience and as such is a little light on the ... Read full review