Forecasting: An Appraisal for Policy-Makers and Planners

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Johns Hopkins University Press, 1979 - Business & Economics - 256 pages
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Energy needs... oil supplies... inflation rates... the demand for new homes... in concerns like these, forecasting plays a crucial role. Forecasts not only determine how billions of dollars will be spent but also commit national policies far into the future; yet, no one really knows how to judge the reliability of forecasts. In this innovative study, William Ascher examines the records of expert forecasting of national trends in population, economics, energy, transportation, and technology over a fifty-year period. The results help to identify both the accuracies and hidden biases of forecasting techniques, information that should be of vital interest to all policy-makers and planners.

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User Review  - jcvogan1 - LibraryThing

Book provides an overview of major areas of forecasting: demographic, economic, energy, transport, and technologic. Book is written for a policy-maker audience and as such is a little light on the ... Read full review

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About the author (1979)

William Ascher is a professor and director of the Center for International Development Research at the Terry Sanford Institute of Public Policy at Duke University. He is the author of Natural Resource Policymaking in Developing Countries and Communities and Sustainable Forestry in Developing Countries.

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