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How to Forecast Lumpy Items
On the NonStatistical Aspects of Statistical
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absolute error actual demand adaptive forecasting adaptive model adaptive smoothing adjustment alpha analysis APICS applied approach article reprinted basic calculated changes class seasonality coefficients component cost customer demand data-points demand data demand patterns demand shifts developed discussion distribution economic economic order quantity Eilon equation error tracking signal estimate example exponential smoothing model factors FOCUS FORECASTING fore forecast error forecast interval forecasting system forecasting techniques future horizontal indicates individual item input Inventory Control Society Inventory Management lead-time manufacturing material requirements planning Mean Absolute Deviation monitoring month old forecast Operations Research order Exponential order point Pareto analysis percent planning predict problem procedure Production and Inventory random range forecasts requirements safety stock service level short-term forecasting significant simple exponential smoothing simple moving average simulation smoothed error tracking smoothing constant standard deviation statistical forecast subjective forecaster Table trend update weighted Wright State University