Forecasting Company Profits
In the first book to look from a thoroughly practical perspective on the crucial business of profits forecasting, Fred Wellings provides an integrated approach to the theories which underpin the forecasting process. This approach also recognises the limitations faced by the outsider in the real world where both time and hard facts may be in equally short supply. It lays emphasis on the patterns of industrial and corporate behaviour and the forecaster's ability to recognise and anticipate these patterns. The first part of the book covers the industrial background within which the individual companies operate, and part two moves the forecaster on from the industry to the company.
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ability advertising annual sales assumptions balance sheet banking Berkshire Hathaway brick deliveries capacity capital goods cycle capital goods sales capital stock Chapter cherry picking Churchill Insurance company's competition competitors consumer cycle consumer durables consumer sales corporate corporate behaviour cost structure customers cyclical decline direct insurers Direct Line discussed downturn estimate example expenditure extrapolation fall finance director financial analyst fixed costs forecasting process Graph growth rate households impact important income increase industry interest investment judgement long term forecasting look manufacturing market share Marks & Spencer motor insurance newspaper operating profits pattern recognition period personal computer population Pre-tax profit profits forecast purchase range rate of growth raw material recession recognised recovery relationship replacement demand retail rise S-curve Sainsbury's saturation level sector shows statistics stock cycle Table Taylor Woodrow Tesco total number trading profits trend turnover unexpected variable costs