Forecasting Enlisted Supply: Projections for 1979-1990
Reports on projections of the supply of high quality male enlistees to each of the four military services which were prepared for the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense -- Manpower, Reserve Affairs, and Logistics. Supply equations are estimated using monthly data from the 1970s. The projections derived from them -- broken down by service, mental category, and economic assumptions -- show steady and substantial declines through the end of the next decade. The methodology followed in the study is detailed, and complete listings of the data employed are included. (Author).
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aggregate unemployment rate AIR FORCE SUPPLY assumption autocorrelation category III Category IIIA cohorts confidence bands data and methodology decline in enlistments Defense Manpower differences distributed lag DoD SUPPLY PROJECTIONS—CASE effect of unemployment enlistment levels enlistment projections enlistment rate enlistment supply estimated supply functions FORCE SUPPLY PROJECTIONS—CASE four services FY78 decline Grissmer GROWTH Year I S HIGH GROWTH HIGH QUALITY HIGH HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES HSDGs IIIA IIIB Total IIIB Total 1979 improved indicator variable lagged effect LESS VIGOROUS EXPANSION LOW GROWTH male population Marine Corps MARINES SUPPLY PROJECTIONS—CASE measure mental categories military service NAVY SUPPLY PROJECTIONS—CASE parameters pay and recruiters Pay Unem percent population pool post-draft production recruiters projected accession levels QUALITY HIGH SCHOOL quality recruits Rand Corporation recruiter variable recruiting effort relative pay result school diploma graduate seasonally adjusted Seemingly Unrelated Regressions September 1978 standard errors Table C.6 total private economy uncertainty youth unemployment rate zero