Forecasting for the Pharmaceutical Industry: Models for New Product and In-market Forecasting and how to Use Them

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Gower Publishing, Ltd., 2006 - Medical - 141 pages
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In virtually every decision, a pharmaceutical executive considers some type of forecast. This process of predicting the future is crucial to many aspects of the company - from next month's production schedule, to market estimates for drugs in the next decade. The pharmaceutical forecaster needs to strike a delicate balance between over-engineering the forecast - including rafts of data and complex 'black box' equations that few stakeholders understand and even fewer buy into - and an overly simplistic approach that relies too heavily on anecdotal information and opinion. Art Cook's highly pragmatic guide explains the basis of a successful balanced forecast for products in development as well as currently marketed products. The author explores the pharmaceutical forecasting process; the varied tools and methods for new product and in-market forecasting; how they can be used to communicate market dynamics to the various stakeholders; and the strengths and weaknesses of different forecast approaches. 'Forecasting for the pharmaceutical industry' is a definitive guide for forecasters as well as the multitude of decision makers and executives who rely on forecasts in their decision making.
 

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Contents

THE PAST AND THE PRESENT
1
Forecasting in the Pharmaceutical Industry
3
Influences Across Functions
5
The Time Horizon for the Forecast
8
In Summary
9
THE FORECASTING PROCESS
11
Select a Forecast
14
Enable Analytic Insights
20
INMARKET PRODUCT FORECASTING
71
Trending Historical Data
72
Applying the Effects of ExTrend Events
78
Converting Trended Data into Forecast Outputs
91
Final Considerations
100
THOUGHTS FOR THE FUTURE
101
Create Stories Not Spreadsheets
102
Hire a Science Fiction Writer
104

Present the Results
31
Final Considerations
33
NEW PRODUCT FORECASTING
35
Modeling the Market
36
Forecasting the Product
49
Converting Patients to Revenue
65
Final Considerations
69
PHARMACO A FORECASTING CASE STUDY
107
Suggested Answers
121
Forecast Techniques
131
References and Further Reading
135
Index
139
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