## Forecasting future events: the application of simple linear least squares, smoothing techniques, and data transformationsDivision of Policy and Budget, Department of Health and Social Services, 1979 - Mathematics - 91 pages |

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### Contents

Linear Least Squares | 4 |

a Unexplained y Variation or Syx | 37 |

The Ratio of Explained Variation to Unexplained | 44 |

2 other sections not shown

### Common terms and phrases

12 month moving accurate actual data points actual value best fit calculate computational columns Computing Least Squares confidence intervals constant process data data in Table data transformations dependent variable described double exponential smoothing double moving averages equation estimate example expenditures explained variation F statistic fluctuation forecast value formula foster care placements Frequency of Clients higher values interval scale ladder of expression least squares analysis least squares prediction line fits line of best linear least squares linear relationship manual margin of error mean squared error measure month moving average moving average forecasts number of adoptions observations ordinal scale Pearson Correlation Coefficient period plot predictor variables prison population probably ratio of explained ratio scale represents residual scores scatterplot serial correlation single exponential smoothing single moving averages six month moving slope smoothing techniques span straight line subtracting tend three month moving Total y variation unexplained varied between $1,000 weight Worksheet