Future Demographic Trends in Europe and North America: What Can We Assume Today?
Wolfgang Lutz, H. H. Winsborough
Elsevier Science, 1991 - Psychology - 585 pages
This is the latest report on what demographers and scientists in related disciplines think and assume today about the future of human reproduction, longevity, and migration.
A quick look at some major errors in past population projections demonstrates that the problem was not with the technical instruments of projection but with the inability to anticipate major changes in human behavior and medical progress. Any population projection that is based exclusively on past trends of demographic rates is bound to miss possible future dicontinuities and surprises. If they can be anticipated at all, it can only be done by considering demographic trends in a broader socioeconomic, cultural, and biological context.
Here, the three components of population change--fertility, morality, and migration--are addressed. Introductory chapters describe past trends and assumptions for projections currently made in Europe and North America. Also included are discussions and analyses of some possible demographic discontinuities, together with a description of how assumptions on the three components are merged for population projections on national and international levels. This includes a synthesis where alternative views are translated numerically into ten alternative demographic scenarios for East Europe, West Europe, and North America through the year 2050.
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Occupational Impacts on Mortality Declines
Changes in Hungarian Mortality and the Role
The Possible Impact of AIDS on Future Mortality
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age groups age structure age-specific analysis apprehensions assumed assumptions average behavior calculated Canada cancer causes of death changes Chapter childbearing circulatory system cohort component death rates decrease demographic developed countries diseases distribution East Eastern Europe effects Elderly Migration estimated European expectancy at birth females fertility decline fertility level fertility rates Figure Finland force of mortality future growth higher HIV infection Hungary Iceland immigration impact increase industrialized countries International intervention Japan labor low fertility male life expectancy maximum life span million mortality rates Netherlands Nordic countries number of children number of deaths observed parameters parity progression ratios period physiological population projections potential potential life lost proportion recent region Republic Romania Scenario senescence social Soviet statistics tion total population trends undocumented United Nations USSR values variables variant virus West Germany women