Future Scenarios on Dental Health Care: A Reconnaissance of the Period 1990-2020 - Scenario Report Commissioned by the Steering Committee on Future Health Scenarios
O. P. Brenninkmeijer, Scenario Committee on Dental Health Care, R. K. J. M. Kuitenbrouwer, A. M. H. Nelissen, R.C.W. Burgersdijk
Springer Netherlands, Feb 28, 1994 - Mathematics - 345 pages
Which developments can be expected to take place in the dental health of the Dutch population in the decades to come, and what are the influential factors? What effects might the changing supply of dental professionals, the additional substitution of responsibilities from dentists to dental hygienists and the possible reforms in health care insurance have on the nation's oral status? These are some of the central questions discussed in this report by the Scenario Committee and the research group. For this purpose, the Committee developed a computer simulation model of dental health care which was used to analyze future scenarios.
The future scenarios described in this report clearly show that a number of crucial decisions must be taken if dental health care is to remain accessible and available for all sections of the population in the future.
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age category age group attendance frequency average number base run become edentulous calculated calculus capacity utilization caries model changes check-ups cost of dental deciduous teeth decrease deep pockets degree of capacity demand for dental dental care dental health dental health care dental hygiene dental hygienists dental treatments dentistry dentists and dental developments Diagram Differences in treatments Dutch population edent effect enrolment capacity estimated fees fluoride FTEs full dentures function gingivitis incidence of caries increase indicated insurance package irreg irregular Kalsbeek H manpower potential million National Health Insurance Netherlands number of dental number of teeth number of treatments oral health oral hygiene instruction oral status parameters periodontal diseases periodontal disorders private contributions privately insured patients professionally active reference scenario regular dental attenders removable partial dentures Results of scenario scenario committee steering factors submodel Table Tandheelkundige Tijdschr Tandheelkd tion total number treatment model Truin values variables