Future Travel Demand and Its Implications for Transportation Infrastructure Investments in the Texas Triangle
Center for Transportation Research, University of Texas at Austin, 2009 - Choice of transportation - 40 pages
This study takes a megaregion approach to project future travel demand and choice of transport modes in the Texas Triangle, which is encompassed by four major metropolitan areas, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, San Antonio, and Austin. The model was developed based on three behavioral characteristics of human travel. First, as income grows, demand for more and faster mobility increases. Second, on average, individuals allocate 1-1.5 hours per capita per day for travel. Third, people allocate 10-15% of per capita personal income for transportation related expenses. Measured by person-kilometers of travel (PKT), the total mobility demand in the Triangle region is projected to grow nearly four times from 480 billion in year 2000 to 1.8 trillion in year 2050. Per capita PKT is expected to increase from 32,700 to 61,000 for the same time period. The projections show that more than 70% of the year 2050 travel demand likely comes from high-speed travel at 600 km per hour..The study results call for serious consideration of investing in high-speed travel in the form of High Speed Rail (HSP) now in order to accommodate the future travel demand in the Triangle Region.
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analysis Austin behavioral Bus Car cap km Census deﬁned deﬁnition Dhavale Estimated mode share ﬁgure ﬁrst ﬁxed travel four-step model future travel demand GDP projection GDP value GDP/cap growth rate Gottmann High Speed Rail high speed transport high-speed transport high-speed travel hours per capita income and mobility increase infrastructure intercity travel model IPCC growth rate Mega Megalopolis Megapolitan Areas megaregion approach metropolitan areas Metropolitan Planning Organizations migration millions of km mobility demand mode choice money budget motorized mobility MPOs Oppenheim people’s percentage share projection results reﬂect regional modeling scenario 0.5 Schafer and Victor share and total signiﬁcant Table Texas GDP Texas Triangle Megaregion There’re Total millions total mobility total travel trafﬁc volume travel behavioral travel by mode travel time budget Triangle Area Triangle income share Triangle population share Triangle region U.S. cities University Transportation Center Urban modeling Yao and Morikawa Zahavi Zhang