Futures: Fundamental Analysis

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John Wiley & Sons, May 29, 1995 - Business & Economics - 225 pages
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The must-have book for all futures traders

In Fundamental Analysis, the legendary Jack D. Schwager has produced the most comprehensive, in-depth book ever written on the use of fundamental analysis for futures trading. In what is destined to become the bible of the futures industry, Schwager has poured out insights gathered during his long career as a trader, researcher, bestselling writer, and highly regarded authority in the field.

This book is packed with invaluable information you'll use every trading day. "Futures guru Jack Schwager has created the definitive source on using fundamental analysis for price forecasting that no trader can afford to be without." -Tom Baldwin Chairman, Baldwin Group

"This book won't make you a great commodities trader instantly, but it will teach you what you must know to start." -Jim Rogers Author, Investment Biker

"Jack Schwager always provides clear and compelling material on the often opaque subject of futures trading." -Richard Dennis President, Dennis Trading Group

"Jack Schwager's deep knowledge of the markets and his extensive network of personal contacts throughout the industry have set him apart as the definitive market chronicler of our age." -Ed Seykota

Fundamental Analysis is the first book in the Schwager on Futures series-the definitive source on the futures market for the next century that no trader will want to be without.

Jack Schwager is one of the most important and visible figures in the futures industry today. His Market Wizards and New Market Wizards are two of the bestselling finance titles of all time. Now Schwager has created the most comprehensive guide ever for using fundamental analysis for futures trading. The much-awaited Schwager on Futures series greatly expands and updates material first contained in his A Complete Guide to the Futures Markets, which has been the bible of the industry for the past decade.

In this first volume of the series, Fundamental Analysis, Schwager shows traders how to apply analytical techniques to actual price forecasting and trading in virtually all futures contracts currently traded. In chapter after chapter, Schwager draws on what he has learned during his legendary career as a successful trader, researcher, and bestselling investment author to dispense priceless insights.

Explains how to apply the techniques of technical analysis to fundamental data-information not found elsewhere
* Shows how regression analysis works and tells how to use it as a tool for price forecasting
* Includes step-by-step instruction on how to build a forecast model
* Contains a 13-chapter section illustrating the applications of fundamental techniques to individual markets and market groups
* Outlines how to analyze seasonal fluctuations, including seasonal price charts of 27 active markets

Numerous charts, tables, and examples illustrate all key concepts, and the text itself is written in the clear, nontechnical style that has helped make Jack Schwager one of today's most widely read and highly regarded investment writers.
 

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Contents

The Great Fundamental versus Technical Analysis Debate
3
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
25
Basic Economic Theory
41
Types of Fundamental Analysis
57
Applying Technical Analysis to Fundamental Data
73
Incorporating Inflation
108
Seasonal Analysis
115
MarketbyMarket Seasonality
149
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS APPLIED
359
Forecasting Cattle Prices by Bill Gary
375
Forecasting Grain Prices
392
Forecasting Soybean Prices by Anne Frick
408
Forecasting Sugar Prices
433
Forecasting Coffee Prices by Sandra Kauf
447
Forecasting Crude Oil Prices by Michael S Rothman
469
Forecasting Copper Prices
480

Analyzing Market Response
184
Government Programs and International Agreements
196
A StepbyStep Approach
216
Summary
238
A Review of Elementary Statistics
249
Checking the Significance of the Regression Equation
274
The Multiple Regression Model
293
Analyzing the Regression Equation
306
Practical Considerations in Applying Regression Analysis
347
Forecasting Gold Precious Metal Prices
498
Forecasting Currency Rates by Katherine Jones
511
Government Policies
521
Forecasting Interest Rates by Katherine Jones
528
Forecasting Foreign Interest Rate Markets
544
Forecasting the Stock Market by Courtney Smith
564
Contract Details
595
Index
625
Copyright

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About the author (1995)

Jack D. Schwager is Director of Futures Research and Trading Strategy at Prudential Securities. He formerly held similar positions at PaineWebber and Smith Barney, with a total of twenty-one years experience heading up futures research departments. He is also a Commodity Trading Advisor and one of the co-principals of Wizard Trading. Mr. Schwager is the author of the highly regarded A Complete Guide to the Futures Markets, published by Wiley, and the bestselling Market Wizards, and The New Market Wizards. His writing has appeared in many publications including the Handbook of Futures Markets, Trading Tactics, and Commodity Research Bureau Yearbook. Much in demand as a speaker, he has lectured on a range of analytical topics, with a particular focus on great traders, technical analysis, and trading system evaluation.

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