Futures, Study Guide: Fundamental Analysis

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John Wiley & Sons, May 10, 1996 - Business & Economics - 208 pages
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The must-have book for all futures traders

In Fundamental Analysis, the legendary Jack D. Schwager has produced the most comprehensive, in-depth book ever written on the use of fundamental analysis for futures trading. In what is destined to become the bible of the futures industry, Schwager has poured out insights gathered during his long career as a trader, researcher, bestselling writer, and highly regarded authority in the field.

This book is packed with invaluable information you'll use every trading day. "Futures guru Jack Schwager has created the definitive source on using fundamental analysis for price forecasting that no trader can afford to be without." -Tom Baldwin Chairman, Baldwin Group

"This book won't make you a great commodities trader instantly, but it will teach you what you must know to start." -Jim Rogers Author, Investment Biker

"Jack Schwager always provides clear and compelling material on the often opaque subject of futures trading." -Richard Dennis President, Dennis Trading Group

"Jack Schwager's deep knowledge of the markets and his extensive network of personal contacts throughout the industry have set him apart as the definitive market chronicler of our age." -Ed Seykota

Fundamental Analysis is the first book in the Schwager on Futures series-the definitive source on the futures market for the next century that no trader will want to be without.

Jack Schwager is one of the most important and visible figures in the futures industry today. His Market Wizards and New Market Wizards are two of the bestselling finance titles of all time. Now Schwager has created the most comprehensive guide ever for using fundamental analysis for futures trading. The much-awaited Schwager on Futures series greatly expands and updates material first contained in his A Complete Guide to the Futures Markets, which has been the bible of the industry for the past decade.

In this first volume of the series, Fundamental Analysis, Schwager shows traders how to apply analytical techniques to actual price forecasting and trading in virtually all futures contracts currently traded. In chapter after chapter, Schwager draws on what he has learned during his legendary career as a successful trader, researcher, and bestselling investment author to dispense priceless insights.

Explains how to apply the techniques of technical analysis to fundamental data-information not found elsewhere
* Shows how regression analysis works and tells how to use it as a tool for price forecasting
* Includes step-by-step instruction on how to build a forecast model
* Contains a 13-chapter section illustrating the applications of fundamental techniques to individual markets and market groups
* Outlines how to analyze seasonal fluctuations, including seasonal price charts of 27 active markets

Numerous charts, tables, and examples illustrate all key concepts, and the text itself is written in the clear, nontechnical style that has helped make Jack Schwager one of today's most widely read and highly regarded investment writers.
 

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Contents

The Great Fundamental versus Technical Analysis Debate
3
For Beginners Only
6
Fourteen Popular Fallacies or What Not to Do Wrong
11
SupplyDemand Analysis Basic Economic Theory
14
Types of Fundamental Analysis
18
Applying Technical Analysis to Fundamental Data
21
The Role of Expectations
25
Incorporating Inflation
28
The Great Fundamental versus Technical Analysis Debate
127
For Beginners Only
128
Fourteen Popular Fallacies or What Not to Do Wrong
131
Basic Economic Theory
132
Types of Fundamental Analysis
134
Applying Technical Analysis to Fundamental Data
135
The Role of Expectations
138
Incorporating Inflation
139

Seasonal Analysis
31
MarketbyMarket Seasonally
34
Analyzing Market Response
38
Government Programs and International Agreements
42
A StepbyStep Approach
46
Fundamental Analysis and Trading
49
Introduction to Regression Analysis
52
A Review of Elementary Statistics
55
Checking the Significance of the Regression Equation
60
The Multiple Regression Model
64
Analyzing the Regression Equation
67
Practical Considerations in Applying Regression Analysis
71
Forecasting Hog Prices
74
Forecasting Cattle Prices
78
Forecasting Grain Prices
82
Forecasting Soybean Prices
86
Forecasting Sugar Prices
90
Forecasting Coffee Prices
94
Forecasting Crude Oil Prices
98
Forecasting Copper Prices
102
Forecasting Gold Precious Metal Prices
105
Forecasting Currency Rates
108
Forecasting Interest Rates
112
Forecasting Foreign Interest Rate Markets
116
Forecasting the Stock Market
120
PART TWO Answers Solutions
125
Seasonal Analysis
140
MarketbyMarket Seasonality
143
Analyzing Market Response
145
Government Programs and International Agreements
147
A StepbyStep Approach
149
Fundamental Analysis and Trading
150
Introduction to Regression Analysis
152
A Review of Elementary Statistics
154
Checking the Significance of the Regression Equation
156
The Multiple Regression Model
158
Analyzing the Regression Equation
160
Practical Considerations in Applying Regression Analysis
162
Forecasting Hog Prices
163
Forecasting Cattle Prices
165
Forecasting Grain Prices
167
Forecasting Soybean Prices
169
Forecasting Sugar Prices
171
Forecasting Coffee Prices
173
Forecasting Crude Oil Prices
175
Forecasting Copper Prices
177
Forecasting Gold Precious Metal Prices
178
Forecasting Currency Rates
179
Forecasting Interest Rates 1 g i
183
Forecasting the Stock Market
185
About the Authors
187
Copyright

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About the author (1996)

Jack D. Schwager is Director of Futures Research and Trading at Prudential Securities. He formerly held similar positions at Paine Webber and Smith Barney, with a total of twenty-two years' experience heading up futures research departments. He is also a Commodity Trading Advisor and one of the coprincipals of Wizard Trading.

Mr. Schwager is the author of the highly regarded A Complete Guide to the Futures Markets, and the Schwager on Futures series that includes the titles Fundamental Analysis and Technical Analysis, all published by Wiley. His writing has appeared in many publications, including the Handbook of Futures Markets, The New York Times, and Forbes. Much in demand as a speaker, he has lectured on a range of analytical topics, with a particular focus on great traders, technical analysis, and trading system evaluation.