Global Development Finance 2008: The Role of International Banking

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World Bank Publications, Jun 6, 2008 - Business & Economics - 172 pages
'Global Development Finance' the World Bank's annual report on the external financing of developing countries provides monitoring and analysis of development finance, identifying key emerging trends and policy challenges in international financial flows that are likely to affect the growth prospects of developing countries. As major financial institutions currently recognize losses from the U.S. subprime mortgage market crisis and rebuild their balance sheets through a more conservative approach to lending and risk management, the central theme of this year's report will be the market for international bank credit to developing countries.It is an indispensable resource for governments, economists, investors, financial consultants, academics, bankers, and the entire development community. 'Vol I: Analysis and Outlook' reviews recent trends in financial flows to developing countries.
 

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Contents

Figure 18 Developingcountry GDP growth 200507
14
Figure 19 Real GDP growth in East Asia and Pacific 200510
15
Figure 110 Current account as a share of GDP in Europe and Central Asia 200607
16
Figure 111 Contributions to GDP growth in Latin America and the Caribbean 19852007
17
Figure 112 Growth of FDI in selected countries of the Middle East and North Africa
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Figure 113 Worker remittances as a share of GDP in South Asian countries 2006
19
Figure 114 GDP growth in SubSaharan Africa19942007
20
Figure 115 Share of developing countries in world exports 19922008
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Figure 118 Nominal import growth developing countries and the United States 19912007
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Figure 119 Global industrial production and metal prices
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Figure 122 Energy prices spiked on supply concerns
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Figure 123 Food prices driven up by biofuels demand
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Figure 124 Rising inflation in developing countries
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Figure 125 Domestic and imported food prices compared
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Figure 127 Consensus forecasts for the US economy
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Recent Trends and Prospects
33
Table 21 Net capital flows to developing countries 200007
35
Boxe 21 The impact of exchangerate movements on capital flows measured in US dollars
36
Figure 22 Current account as a share of GDP in developing countries 2007
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Figure 24 Foreign reserves relative to principal and interest payments on debtoutstanding 200007
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Table 22 Crossborder bank lending to developing countries by region 200007
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Table 23 Top 10 developing countries receiving crossborder syndicated loan commitments200007
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Table 24 Currency composition of crossborder syndicated bank loan commitmentsto developing countries 200307
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Figure 29 Private bond flows as a share of GDP 19912007
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Table 26 Currency composition of bond issuance by developing countries 200307
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Table 27 Net shortterm debt flows to developing countries by region 2007
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Table 29 Firsttime external bond issues by developing countries 200508
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Table 210 Net equity inflows to developing countries 200007
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Figure 212 Net equity inflows as a share of GDP 19912007
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Table 211 Top 10 portfolio equity destination developing countries 200007
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Table 214 Returns in international equity markets 200307
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Boxe 24 The development of frontier equity markets
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Table 215 Top 10 FDI destination developing countries 200007
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Table 216 The 10 largest privatizations mergers and acquisitions in 2007
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Figure 218 Equity inflows to and outflows from developing countries 19912007
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Table 218 Net capital inflows to and outflows from developing countries 200007
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Figure 220 Net ODA disbursements as a share of GDP in developing countries 2006
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Table 219 Net disbursements of official development assistance excluding debt relief 19902007
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Figure 222 Net ODA disbursements to SubSaharan Africa 19902010
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Figure 224 Net ODA disbursements excluding debt relief 19602006
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Table 220 Remittance flows to developing countries 200007
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Figure 228 Top remittancereceiving countries by dollars and percentage of GDP
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Figure 230 Bond spreads January 2007 midMay 2008
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Figure 231 Threemonth LIBOR and yield on threemonth US Treasury billsJanuary 2007 midMay 2008
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Figure 234 Yields on 5year Euro Area corporate bonds April 2003 midMay 2008
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Figure 235 Bond issuance by developing countries January 2004 March 2008
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Figure 238 Net private capital flows to developing countries 19902009
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Figure 239 Net ODA disbursements by DAC donors 19602010
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Figure 241 Foreign reserves as a share of shortterm debt in 11 countries 200607
68
Figure 243 Crossborder bank loan commitments to and bond issuance by the banking sector as a shareof GDP in 8 countries July 2005 February 2008
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Figure 246 Equity market returns in 8 countries January 2007 early May 2008
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Table 2A1 List of countries in emerging and frontiermarket indexes
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Table 32 Major crossborder MA sales by developing countries 200107
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Table 33 Foreign ownership restrictions in banking sector 2004 or latest available year
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Figure 38 Restrictions on FDI in the banking sector 2005
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Table 34 Average foreign and domestic bank performance indicators in developing regions19982005
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Figure 39 Ratio of overhead cost to total assets in select regions by mode of foreign bank entry19982005
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Boxe 32 Profile of the top 200 lenders to developing countries
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threemonth LIBORthreemonth OIS
97
Figure 312 Reported tightening in US lending standards for commercial and industrial loans19902008
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Boxe 34 Foreign banks reaction to the Argentine crisis
100
Table 35 Characteristics of selected developing countries with large private credit growth
101
Figure 314 Private credit growth and distribution of foreign bank assets in developing countries
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Figure 316 Average moneymarket and lending rates for a sample of countries
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Figure 317 Evolution of the passthrough of moneymarket rates to lending rates
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Figure 318 Risk premiums have increased across emerging economies as shown by spreads on fiveyearcredit default swaps
106
Figure 319 Composition of foreign claims in select developing countries as of third quarter 2007
107
Table 36 Developing countries with highly concentrated foreign banking assets 200506
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Table 3B1 Multivariate analysis of credit supply to emerging economies
112
Table 3B2 Multivariate analysis of credit to emerging economies
113
Table 3C1 Lending rate estimates
114
Regional Outlooks
121
Figure A1 Growth accelerates across most East Asia and Pacific countries in 2007
122
Figure A3 Trends in inflation for selected East Asian countries
123
Table A2 Net capital flows to East Asia and Pacific
124
Table A3 East Asia and Pacific country forecasts
125
Table A4 Europe and Central Asia forecast summary
126
Figure A4 Real GDP growth rates for selected Europe and Central Asia countries
127
Figure A6 Spreads rising for selected Europe and Central Asia countries
128
Table A5 Net capital flows to Europe and Central Asia
129
Table A6 Europe and Central Asia country forecasts
130
Table A7 Latin America and the Caribbean forecast summary
132
Figure A8 Spreads in Latin America and the Caribbean little affected contrastedwith US highyield bonds
133
Table A8 Net capital flows to Latin America and the Caribbean
134
Figure A9 Commodity price surge has carried quite different effects across Latin Americaand the Caribbean
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Table A9 Latin America and the Caribbean country forecasts
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Figure A10 Exporters in Latin America and the Caribbean have not capitalized on growingdemand from China
137
Figure A11 Real GDP takes a step up 19902007
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Table A10 Middle East and North Africa forecast summary
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Figure A12 Current account revenues as share of GDP 200007
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Table A11 Net capital flows to Middle East and North Africa
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Table A12 Middle East and North Africa country forecasts
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Table A13 South Asia forecast summary
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Figure A13 Food consumption as a share of total consumption across South Asian countries
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Table A14 Net capital flows to South Asia
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Figure A14 Shifts in South Asias export partner composition
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Table A15 South Asia country forecasts
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Figure A16 Growth across selected SubSaharan Africa subregions
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Table A16 SubSaharan Africa forecast summary
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Table A17 Net capital flows to SubSaharan Africa
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Table A18 SubSaharan Africa country forecasts
152
Figure A17 Foreign portfolio flows coverage of South Africas current account deficit
155
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