Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue about the
Global Trends 2015 should be seen as a work-in-progress, a flexible framework for thinking about the future[T]he judgments flow from our best efforts to produce a comprehensive picture of the world in 2015. [This] analysis will helpleaders better cope with, for example, the uncertainties involved with the decline of Russia, the emergence of China, or the political, economic and societal dynamics in the Middle East. Originally issued by the Central Intelligence Agency in July 2001, Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue About the Future identifies the factors that will be central in shaping the global demographic landscape in 2015 and beyond. Several Key Findings Include: Declining birthrates and a steady increase of an aging population will combine to increase health care and pension costs. Expansion of the youth bulge in several developing countries will increase the potential for economic growth and political stability. Food, energy and water scarcities will pose significant challenges to the Middle East, North Africa, South Asia and Northern China. Effective governance will increasingly be determined by the ability to form partnerships to increase information flows, create new technologies and manage population migration. This research was originally approved for publication by the National Foreign Intelligence Board under the authority of the Director of Central Intelligence and prepared under the direction for the National Intelligence Council.
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adversaries agenda areas Asian biotechnology birthrates capabilities challenges China communal computer networks continue criminal cultural cyber decline defense demographic developing countries diffusion domestic drivers dynamic economic growth effective emerging market countries energy environmental ethnic Europe European expand experts forces foreign global economy Global Futures Global Trends 2015 globaliza governments growing ICBM increase increasingly India information revolution information technology instability institutions integration internal conflicts issues Japan Korea Latin America lead leaders leadership major ments Middle East military million missile National Intelligence Council natural resources networks nomic nonprofit nonstate actors North Korea nuclear organizations Pakistan percent Persian Gulf political population growth potential problems reform regimes regional remain role Russia scenarios science and technology sector significant social South Asia strategic Sub-Saharan Africa sustained terrorists threats tion tional trade transnational uncertainties United urban weapons
Page 10 - Regions, countries, and groups feeling left behind will face deepening economic stagnation, political instability, and cultural alienation. They will foster political, ethnic, ideological, and religious extremism, along with the violence that often accompanies it.
Page 12 - Prospects will grow that more sophisticated weaponry, including weapons of mass destruction — indigenously produced or externally acquired- — will get into the hands of state and nonstate belligerents, some hostile to the United States. The likelihood will increase over this period that WMD will be used either against the United States or its forces, facilities, and interests overseas.
Page 12 - Nations and regional organizations will be called on to manage such conflicts because major states — stressed by domestic concerns, perceived risk of failure, lack of political will, or tight resources — will minimize their direct involvement. Export control regimes and sanctions will be less effective because of the diffusion of technology, porous borders, defense industry consolidations, and reliance on foreign markets to maintain profitability. Arms and weapons technology transfers will be...
Page 10 - The networked global economy will be driven by rapid and largely unrestricted flows of information, ideas, cultural values, capital, goods and services, and people; that is, globalization. This globalized economy will be a net contributor to increased political stability in the world in 2015, although its reach and benefits will not be universal.