How to Forecast: A Guide for Business
Forecasting is an essential discipline in the planning and running of a business: not only for the business plan and annual budget but for the appraisal of investment projects, the commissioning of research as well as the appraisal of the competition and the feasibility of making acquisitions. Managers are continually confronted with the need to take decisions, and being able to construct a route map of the future is a key way of determining a course of action. This book provides a practical guide to forecasting the environment in which a firm operates. James Morrell, with 45 years of experience as a forecaster to draw on, goes through the key areas which can affect a business. He includes those which are out of the firm's control such as fiscal and monetary policy, population levels and the labour market; and those under the firm's control such as costs, prices, profits and product development. By understanding the issues surrounding these varied subjects any manager will be able to better analyse the data they are given and construct practical and useful forecasts from them. Forecasting is an art as well as a science - this book helps to unlock its secrets.
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Forecasting the national economy
Interest rates and government policy
The global market exchange rates and the balance of payments
Global warming energy and commodity prices
Population social trends and lifestyles
Technical change communications and education
Spending power profits and the market
UNDER THE FIRMS CONTROL 8 Longterm strategy and investment
20th century 21st century analysis assets assumptions average balance of payments black economy business cycle capital employed cash flow cent per annum central bank Climate Change commodity prices company sector company's construct consumer costs and prices countries currency cyclical deficit demand depreciation Diagram dividends earnings per share employment energy equality estimates exchange rate expanded exports factors faster fertility rate firm firm's fiscal policy fluctuations forecasts genetic engineering global global warming gross growth impact important increase individual industrial interest rates investment labour costs long-term major measure monetary money supply national economy output P/E ratios pattern period population potential price forecasts price inflation profits range ratios reduce result return on capital rise risk share price shareholders social spending power statistics targets taxation tend trade trend value added volatile wage whole world economy