How to Forecast: A Guide for Business

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Gower Publishing, Ltd., 2001 - Business & Economics - 201 pages
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Forecasting is an essential discipline in the planning and running of a business: not only for the business plan and annual budget but for the appraisal of investment projects, the commissioning of research as well as the appraisal of the competition and the feasibility of making acquisitions. Managers are continually confronted with the need to take decisions, and being able to construct a route map of the future is a key way of determining a course of action. This book provides a practical guide to forecasting the environment in which a firm operates. James Morrell, with 45 years of experience as a forecaster to draw on, goes through the key areas which can affect a business. He includes those which are out of the firm's control such as fiscal and monetary policy, population levels and the labour market; and those under the firm's control such as costs, prices, profits and product development. By understanding the issues surrounding these varied subjects any manager will be able to better analyse the data they are given and construct practical and useful forecasts from them. Forecasting is an art as well as a science - this book helps to unlock its secrets.
 

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Contents

Forecasting the national economy
3
Interest rates and government policy
23
The global market exchange rates and the balance of payments
39
Global warming energy and commodity prices
55
Population social trends and lifestyles
71
Technical change communications and education
93
Spending power profits and the market
107
UNDER THE FIRMS CONTROL 8 Longterm strategy and investment
121
Costs and prices
135
Forecasting from a model of the business
149
Forecasting profits
159
Forecasting share prices
173
The rules of forecasting
189
Bibliography
195
Index
197
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