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Potential Output and the Output Gap
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actual output average Bank of Iceland billion borrowing requirement budget proposal Central Bank changes Chart Coe and McDermott component consumer price consumption current account imbalances current account sustainability deficit devaluations developments effects exports external debt Financial balance fiscal imbalances fisheries fluctuations foreign Hodrick-Prescott filter HP filter Icelandic economy Icelandic Stock Exchange imports increased indicator industry inflation inflationary pressures instrumental variables interest rates International Financial Statistics krona labor input macroeconomic Ministry of Finance monetary NAIRU National Economic Institute national saving NAWRU negotiations non-fish business sector non-fish sector OECD Outlook output gap pension percent in 1996 percent of GDP period personal income tax potential output private sector public sector quota Real GDP growth recent reduce reforms saving rate short-term Source staff calculations staff medium-term projections structural supply shocks total factor productivity Transfer payments Treasury bonds Trend GDP trend output variables x2 test