Identifying and Managing Project Risk: Essential Tools for Failure-proofing Your Project

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AMACOM Div American Mgmt Assn, 2003 - Business & Economics - 354 pages
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"There's a good reason project risk management is one of the most vital of the nine content areas of the Project Management Body of Knowledge (TM). Important projects tend to be time constrained, pose huge technical challenges, and suffer from a lack of adequate resources. It's no wonder that project managers are increasingly focusing their attention on risk identification.

Identifying and Managing Project Risk is a practical guide to minimizing the possibility of failure in critical projects. The book takes readers step by step through every phase of a project, showing them how to consider the possible risks involved at every point in the process. Relevant figures and diagrams support the text and illustrate key scenarios. At the end of each chapter is an analysis of how the principles just discussed applied to a supreme example of what many once considered a truly impossible project: the building of the Panama Canal.

Packed with real-world information, this book is essential reading for any project manager seeking to complete projects smoothly and successfully."

 

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Contents

Why Project Risk Management?
1
Risk
2
Benefits and Uses of Risk Data
8
The Risk Management Process
10
The First Panama Canal Project
12
Planning for Risk Management
17
Project Selection
18
Overall Project Planning Processes
20
Quantitative Risk Assessment
169
Key Ideas for Activity Risk Analysis
179
Managing Activity Risks
182
Root Cause Analysis
183
Categories of Risk
184
Risk Response Planning
186
Managing a Specific Risk
213
Key Ideas for Managing Activity Risks
217

Defining Risk Management for the Project
29
The PERIL Database
31
Key Ideas for Project Risk Planning
35
Identifying Project Scope Risk
37
Sources of Scope Risk
38
Defining Deliverables
41
HighLevel Risk Assessment Tools
48
Setting Limits
53
Work Breakdown Structure WBS
55
Other Risks
61
Document the Risks
64
Key Ideas for Identifying Scope Risks
65
Identifying Project Schedule Risk
68
Sources of Schedule Risk
69
Activity Definition
73
Estimating Activity Duration
74
Activity Sequencing
93
Document the Risks
101
Key Ideas for Identifying Schedule Risks
102
Identifying Project Resource Risk
104
Sources of Resource Risk
105
Resource Planning
109
Staff Acquisition
114
Procurement Planning and Source Selection
119
Cost Estimating
127
Cost Budgeting
129
Key Ideas for Identifying Resource Risks
130
Managing Project Constraints and Documenting Risks
132
Analyze Constraints
133
Scope Options and Opportunity Management
138
Resource Options
143
Schedule Options
145
Assess Options and Update Plans
150
Seek Missing Risks
151
Key Ideas for Constraint Management and Risk Discovery
156
Quantifying and Analyzing Activity Risks
158
Quantitative and Qualitative Risk Analysis
159
Risk Probability
160
Risk Impact
161
Qualitative Risk Analysis
164
Risk Plans 19061914
218
Quantifying and Analyzing Project Risk
221
ProjectLevel Risk
222
Aggregating Risk Responses
224
Questionnaires and Surveys
225
Instructions for the Project Risk Questionnaire
226
Project Simulation and Modeling
233
Analysis of Scale
248
Project Appraisal
249
Project Metrics
251
Key Ideas for Project Risk Analysis
262
Managing Project Risk
264
Project Documentation Requirements
265
Project StartUp
267
Selecting and Implementing Project Metrics
271
Management Reserve
273
Project Baseline Negotiation
278
Project Plan Validation
282
Key Ideas for Managing Project Risk
288
Monitoring and Controlling Risky Projects
290
Applying the Plan
291
Project Monitoring
292
Collecting Project Status
295
Metrics and Trend Analysis
297
Responding to Issues
302
Communication
303
Project Archives
311
Project Reviews and Risk Reassessment
312
Key Ideas for Risk Monitoring and Control
317
Closing Projects
320
Project Closure
321
Project Retrospective Analysis
323
Key Ideas for Project Closure
329
Conclusion
331
The Next Project
335
Selected Detail from the PERIL Database
337
Selected Bibliography
345
Index
349
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About the author (2003)

Tom Kendrick (San Carlos, CA) has more than 25 years of project management experience, twelve of which were spent as a part of the Hewlett-Packard Project Management Initiative.

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