Ifo Survey Data in Business Cycle and Monetary Policy Analysis
Jan-Egbert Sturm, Timo Wollmershäuser
Springer Science & Business Media, Mar 30, 2006 - Business & Economics - 224 pages
A pilot ?ying to a distant city needs to check his position, ?ight path and weather conditions, and must constantly keep his plane under control to land safely.TheIfosurveydataprovideadvanceinformationonchangingeconomic weather conditions and help keep the economy under control. To be sure, by their very nature they only provide short-term information. But like a plane, the economy will not be able to reach its long-term goals if it strays o? course in the short term. The Ifo survey data provide the most comprehensive and accurate, - to-date database in Europe on the state of the business cycle, and the Ifo climate indicator, sometimes simply called “The Ifo”, is the most frequently cited indicator of its kind in Europe. Both the European stock market and theeuroreacttoourindicator.Ifo’smethodologyfordeterminingthebusiness climateindicatorhasbeenexportedtomorethan?ftycountries,mostrecently toTurkeyandChina.TheIfopeoplewereproudtohavebeenaskedtohelpset up polling systems in these countries. It is said that the Chinese government relies more on their “Ifo indicator” than on their o?cial accounting statistics.
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AD Filtered AD/AMA AD/AMA(PRD aggregate assessment asset price autocorrelation average Banque de France Bernanke Blinder business climate indicator business conditions business cycle business situation indicator central bank changes codependent cycle cointegration components composite index correlation countercyclical CPB leading indicator credibility cycle analysis cyclical data set demand Deutsche Bundesbank economic economists effects estimated European Central Bank expectations filter fixed width revisions GDP forecasts Germany house prices Ifo business climate Ifo business situation Ifo Business Survey Ifo indicators Ifo Institute Ifo series Ifo survey impulse responses increasing width revisions inflation interest rate inventory fluctuations inventory investment inventory stocks mean squared error monetary policy shock monthly months national accounts NRMSFEh OECD p-value parameters predict quarterly Quarters ahead real wages reference series release role sample services sector small firms statistical structure survey data Table transparency trend values Variables AD(GDP vector autoregressive weighting scheme