Improvement of economic forecasts, Volume 3, Issue 27
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, 1995 - Business & Economics - 21 pages
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0.1 Other investment 0.7 Public expenditure 1993 Private consumption accurate Associated Professor TURKEY Average Forecast Error boom business representatives consumer surveys credit risk cycles cyclical CZECH REPUBLIC discussion paper economic activity Economic Department economic forecasting Economist effects Error 1988 Forecast Error Forecast Outturn exogenous shocks Exports 0.5 felt Forecast 1991 Outturn Forecast Outturn Error forecasting performance Forecasts and outturns Germany growth rate highlighted impact Imports 1.3 inflation interest rates investment 0.3 Italy Japan judgement Kingdom Canada Total labour leading indicators Mean absolute error meeting national accounts Nick Mansley number of countries OECD forecast OECD forecast/previous OECD Secretariat OECD WORKING PAPERS organised Outturn 1991 Error Outturn Error 1988 Outturn Error Forecast POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENTS Priv Private consumption 1.5 Professor TURKEY Confederation Public expenditure 0.5 re-unification REASONS FOR ERRORS RECENT FORECASTING EXPERIENCE recent past res'l construction 0.0 short-run significant Stockbuilding 0.3 0.2 Sweden Turkey DISK turning points United Kingdom variables wide range