## Incorporation of risk variables in econometric supply response analysis |

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### Contents

REVIEW OF LITERATURE | 4 |

METHODOLOGY FOR INCORPORATING RISK VARIABLES | 19 |

CONVENTIONAL SUPPLY RESPONSE ESTIMATES FOR | 29 |

5 other sections not shown

### Common terms and phrases

adaptive expectations aggregation ALMON LAG MODEL autocorrelation Chapter CM CM Conventional Supply Response correlated Definition Equation Absa deflated dependent variable DISTRIBUTION RISK VARIABLES dummy variable Durbin-Watson statistic Early Spring crop Early Summer Crop Equation Absa Squaa expected price expected utility farmers four seasonal groups Frequency Histograms function GEOMETRIC LAG MODEL Graph I I I I I I income Incorporation of Price Indifference Curves iterative procedure lagged prices Late Spring Crop Late Summer crop lognormal lognormal distribution Moving Standard Deviation observations on risk onion onion crop Original Risk Variable plantings price coefficients Price Coeffs Price Lag Structures PRICE RISK VARIABLES Probability Distribution production profit maximization REVENUE RISK VARIABLES risk aversion risk definitions Risk Variable Definition seasonal groups Sum of Price t-ratios Table total U.S. crop TREND SQUARED trend variable U.S. and Late Variable Definition Equation Yield and Revenue York crop