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Headline Versus Underlying Inflation
CounterFactual Simulation of Inflation Targeting 19722000
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0.5 percentage points 24 months adjustment bandwidth Bank of Korea baseline bootstrap simulations broad money growth calculated capital flows CB rate conduct monetary policy counter-factual simulation countries equation exogenous Figure food price inflation forecast error forecast performance forecasting inflation growth rate headline CPI inflation headline inflation horizon is six horizon of 18 hypothetical IT simulations import price impulse responses inflation forecast inflation in Korea inflation outcomes inflation response inflation target band inflation target horizon January Korea Act Lucas critique measure monetary authorities monetary control lags monetary shocks monetary tightening nominal exchange rate nominal variables Note output cycle percent predictability inflation predictability of inflation price equation price index price inflation shocks price stability prior to adopting real exchange rate real interest rate real variables reserve money RMSE sample period simulation results Specifically standard deviation supply shocks Table targeting headline CPI three lags transmission mechanism underlying CPI inflation zero