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Introduction and Summary
A Procedure for Testing the Monetarist
Testing the Monetarist Inflation Model with
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10-quarter-lag Mi model aggregate demand Almon method average BPEA causality tests constant term correctly specified countercyclical denotes significance distributed lag coefficients distributed lag models Durbin-Watson statistic Econometric Models flation forecast errors forecast inflation future lag coefficients Granger causality growth on inflation growth rates growth trend inflation forecasts inflation surge Karnosky lag Mi model lag specification Mi-price elasticity Model Estimations Monetarism monetarist inflation model monetarist inflation thesis Monetary Aggregates monetary impulse monetary policy money growth money supply nonmonetary price effects null hypothesis oil price hike out-of-sample forward simulation past and future past lag percent Mi growth percentage points price level price stability procedure quarters real output reserve aggregates sample period Sample Sensitivity Tests sensitivity analysis Shiller significant coefficients Sims Sims/Granger tests single-equation standard error statistically significant structural change subperiods suggest sum of coefficients suppression effect time/savings deposits tion total reserves underforecast unidirectional causality unusual nonmonetary price variable wage/price controls