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A. J. Ayer achieve alternatives analysis antecedent argues argument assumption attitude basis Bayesian inference behaviour belief Bertrand Russell bias C. I. Lewis causal cause classify common concept consequences Construct validity correlation course of action criterion decision decision-maker deduction defined depends determine developed effect empirical Ernest Nagel established evaluation evidence example experience fact factors functional explanations goals hypothesis hypothetical constructs independent variable inference interpretation interview labour logical logical positivism manager mathematical meaning method motives Nagel nature objectives observation occur operational definitions operational measures ostensive definition payoff payoff matrix perception possible prediction probability problem profit proposition purpose relationship relevant rival hypotheses sample scale scientific scientists selection simply social science statement statistical stimulus structure sub-set suggest symbolic techniques teleological theory true truth validity verified