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HI Leading Indicators of Inflation
A Simple Multivariate Model of Inflation
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00t ttt 20 percent trimmed activity variables broad money C0nstant and Trend C0nstant C0nstant Consumer Price Index consumer price inflation Core Inflation Measures CPI inflation measures CPI T20 Debelle define core inflation Detrended and Seasonally economic theory effective exchange rate four inflation measures Granger causality tests headline CPI inflation headline inflation histogram IMF Working Paper impulse responses indicators of inflation Inflation in Poland interest rates kurtosis l0g-ttevels lag order leading indicators McNeilly and Schiesser-Gachnang Mean Squared Error measures of underlying Measuring Core Inflation median CPI median inflation monetary policy instruments month-on-month multivariate model null hypothesis out-of-sample forecasts P-values parameters plus/minus two standard prcpizl price changes price increases price movements Quah and Vahay recursively relative prices Residuals retail sales sample sample median Seasonally Adjusted Data significant standard error bands statistical linkage Supply Shocks t-stat top panel transition economies trimmed inflation trimmed means trimmed T20 trimmed-mean underlying inflation unit root weight zloty