Journeys Through Conflict: Narratives and Lessons

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Hayward R. Alker, Ted Robert Gurr, Kumar Rupesinghe
Rowman & Littlefield, 2001 - Political Science - 462 pages
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Journeys Through Conflict is the story of the Conflict Early Warning Systems (CEWS) project of the International Social Science Research Council. It relates the history of the project, presents its empirically grounded approach to anticipating violent conflict, and shows how the approach may be extended to other social science research arenas. Phase analysis of conflict life cycles, comparative case studies, reconstructed narratives, and policy lessons are hallmarks of this pathbreaking work by an international, interdisciplinary group of expert conflict analysts. Journeys Through Conflict projects alternate pathways to war and peace by a unique coding, graphing, and computational procedure that takes into account both contested conflict histories and future conflict resolutions.
 

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Contents

The Challenge of Developing Conflict Early Warning Information Systems A Proposal
3
The Double Design of the CEWS Project
32
Peacemaking and Conflict Transformation in Guatemala
56
Comparative Studies of Prevention Successes and Failures
79
Could Humanitarian Crises Have Been Anticipated in Burundi Rwanda and Zaire? A Comparative Study of Anticipatory Indicators
81
Escalatory Dynamics in the MoldovaDniestr and Chechnya Conflicts
103
Why Are Some Ethnic Disputes Settled Peacefully While Others Become Violent? Comparing Slovakia Macedonia and Kosovo
128
A Comparative Analysis of Confict Resolution in Angola and South Africa
179
A Prototype Information System for Early Warning Networks
289
A Comparative Look at Early Warning Indicators PIOOM the State Failures Project and CEWS Cases
291
A Synthetic Framework for Extensible Conflict Early Warning Information Systems
318
Exploring Alternative Conflict Trajectories with the CEWS Explorer
354
Sharing Informational Resources within Global CEW Networks
395
A Review of Research and Practice in Early Warning and Early Response Lessons Learned and Policy Issues
397
References
421
Index
441

Nonconventional Diplomacy Experiences of NGOs and Peoples Participation in Selected Peace Processes
196
Domestic and Transnational Strategies for Managing Separatist Conflicts Four Asian Cases
240
About the Contributors
461
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About the author (2001)

Hayward R. Alker is John A. McCone Professor in the School of International Relations at the University of Southern California. Ted Robert Gurr is Distinguished University Professor and director of the Minorities at Risk program at the University of Maryland at College Park. Kumar Rupesinghe is the chair of Quality Management Systems, International.

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