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CONSIDERATIONS IN SELECTING ASSESSMENT
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according to expected actually alternative apply asked availability heuristic base rate better biases calibration graph cancer chance Chapter choice clairvoyant coherence conjunction consider contingency covariance graph credible intervals decide decision analysis decision maker decision problem decision representations decision situation described discrimination Disease effect evaluation example EXERCISES AND STUDY expected utility theory expected value Felicia Pine's Fischhoff forecasters fractile Gamble G1 grade heuristic hindsight bias illustrates implied indicated individual instance Jerry Reed judged probability distribution judgment accuracy likelihood judgments loss lottery mean occur opinions options outcomes overconfidence patients people's person physicians potential predictions present principles probabilistic probability judgments probability score probability theory procedures proportion prospect theory Rain reason Recall reference point reported representativeness heuristic risk averse risk seeking rule scenario semivariance shown in Figure subjects suggested Suppose Table target event tion utility function value function various versus widgets