Research Foundation of the Institute of Chartered Financial Analysts, Dec 1, 1999 - Business & Economics - 91 pages
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The Models for LongTerm Forecasting
Behavior of the Model Factors
Stocks versus Bonds
8 other sections not shown
10-year forecasts 5.5 percent Appendix average bear market behavior beneﬁt Chartered Financial Analysts common stocks Consumer Price Index corporate bond decline dividend growth rate dividend payments dividend yield earnings growth rate equity risk premium equivalency model eroding period expected growth rate expected return factors ﬁgures ﬁnancial markets ﬁrst ﬁve ﬁve-year forecast trend line future growth rate Gray gross domestic product growth rate expectations holding-period returns HPR spreads increase Index inﬂation rate inﬂation-adjusted inﬂuence interest rates investment value models investors long-term forecasts market level Number pattems peak percentage points portfolio Proﬁts rate of inﬂation real discount rate real earnings growth real growth rate recession recovering period reﬂected retums retur n risk tolerance riskiness S&P 400 dividend signiﬁcant speciﬁcally stock and bond stock market stock prices stock returns terminal date terminal price trailing real volatility yield to maturity