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HI Determinants of Macroeconomic Cycles in China
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20 percent accelerated adaptive expectations adjustments in administered administered price increases aggregate demand authorities capital gap capital stock Chinese economy components of aggregate credit growth cycle stands demand components demand pressures disinflation driven economic activity effect on inflation estimated excess demand Export gap F-test facilitated the soft factors financial policies fixed investment food prices free-market prices growth rate guided prices Hodrick-Prescott filter increase in capacity increases in market Inflation and Growth inflation rate inflationary expectations interest rates International Monetary Fund Investment gap levels macroeconomic cycles market prices model of equation monetary and credit monetary policy positive output gap potential GDP potential output price reform real GDP growth recent cycle reduced reduction in inflation renminbi response retail price inflation Retail sales gap Robert Mundell role RPI inflation sacrifice ratio Schwarz criterion SOE sector soft landing state-determined strong growth structural reforms third cycle trend upswing variables World Bank