Macroeconomic Impacts of the 9/11 Attack: Evidence from Real-Time Forecasting
DIANE Publishing, 2011 - 16 pages
Evaluates the macroeconomic impacts of the 9/11 attack on U.S. real GDP growth and the unemployment rate by examining how forecasts of these variables were revised after the attack occurred. By this approach, the immediate impact of the 9/11 attack was to reduce real GDP growth in 2001 by 0.5%, and to increase the unemployment rate by 0.11% (reduce employment by 598,000 jobs). Forecasted real GDP growth in 2002 fell dramatically immediately after the 9/11 attack but then recovered fully. The forecasted unemployment rate in 2002 rose sharply immediately after the 9/11 attack, but unlike real GDP growth, it never subsequently returned to a pre-9/11 level. Illustrations. This is a print on demand edition of a hard to find publication.
What people are saying - Write a review
We haven't found any reviews in the usual places.
02 Month prior 1918 influenza pandemic 2001 forecasts absolute-value regressions Actual 2002 value analyze anthrax attack coefficients coefficients of variation Consensus Economics Poll consensus forecast consequences dummies included dummy variable economic activity economic impacts Economics Poll Forecast Economist magazine estimates evidence fear factor Figure forecast data forecast values forecasted growth fourth quarter graphs growth and unemployment growth in 2001 growth-downturn Gulf Gulf War Horwich impact of 9/11 impacts on forecast individual forecasts initial invasion of Iraq Iraq invasion Jan Sep jobless recovery jump-shift Kobe longer-run macroeconomic impacts macroeconomic level macroeconomic outcomes macroeconomic variables mitigation responses month-downturn dummies natural disasters October of current OECD Oklahoma City bombing outbreak pandemic potential prior to Jan Professional Forecasters pool quarter of 2001 real GDP growth recession resiliency Sep Oct September short-run significant negative impact simulation Survey of Professional terrorist attacks unemployment forecast unemployment rate forecast values Absolute values World Trade Center WTC bombing