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FROM GROWTH TO CRISIS
POLICY WEAKNESSES AND DISTORTIONS
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5.5 percent access to foreign achieved external balance aggregate demand alternative policies average rate balance of payments capital inflows closure constant real exchange counterfactual simulations current account balance deposits deterioration domestic currency domestic demand domestic prices domestic savings domestically marketed output equate exchange rate policy exogenous expenditure-switching expenditures external balance condition Figure fixed investment foreign credit foreign exchange constraint growth of real growth of Yugoslavia's higher interest rates IB curve impact imported intermediates indicate interest rate policies Jerusalem Post Lower Wage Growth macroeconomic policies nominal exchange rate nominal wage payments crisis percent in 1979 period policy environment promptly and significantly rate of domestic real exchange rate real interest rates Real private consumption real wages reformed promptly relative prices Scenario severe balance simulation results social sector stagflation supply of domestically Telex Total absorption UGANDA World Bank Yugoslav economy Yugoslavia's actual Yugoslavia's foreign debt