Making Hard Decisions with DecisionTools
Duxbury/Thomson Learning, 2001 - Business & Economics - 733 pages
MAKING HARD DECISIONS WITH DECISIONTOOLS is a special version of Bob Clemen's best-selling text, MAKING HARD DECISIONS. This straight-forward book teaches the fundamental ideas of decision analysis, without an overly technical explanation of the mathematics used in management science. This new version incorporates and implements the powerful DecisionTools by Palisade Corporation, the world's leading toolkit for risk and decision analysis. At the end of each chapter, topics are illustrated with step-by-step instructions for DecisionTools. This new version makes the text more useful and relevant to students to business and engineering.
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Introduction to Decision Analysis
Elements of Decision Problems
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Accept $2 Billion alternatives appropriate arrow Bayes BestFit beta distribution binomial button calculate cell chance event chance node Chapter choose consequence node consider construct cost Counteroffer $5 Billion creative deci decision analysis decision context decision maker decision node decision problem decision situation decision tree decision-analysis dialog box discussed Eagle Airlines example expected value Final Court forecast formula fractiles fundamental objectives graph Hours Flown influence diagram input investment judgments Liedtke Maximize means objectives normal distribution option outcomes overall parameters payoff Pennzoil Poisson Poisson distribution possible posterior posterior probability PrecisionTree Price prior probability probability distribution profit programs represent RISKview risky sensitivity analysis shown in Figure shows simulation solve specific spreadsheet standard deviation Step stochastic dominance structure Suppose Table techniques Texaco theoretical distribution tion TopRank uncertain events uncertain quantity uncertainty variables variance