Market Response Models: Econometric and Time Series Analysis

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Springer Science & Business Media, Jan 31, 2003 - Business & Economics - 502 pages
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From 1976 to the beginning of the millennium—covering the quarter-century life span of this book and its predecessor—something remarkable has happened to market response research: it has become practice. Academics who teach in professional fields, like we do, dream of such things. Imagine the satisfaction of knowing that your work has been incorporated into the decision-making routine of brand managers, that category management relies on techniques you developed, that marketing management believes in something you struggled to establish in their minds. It’s not just us that we are talking about. This pride must be shared by all of the researchers who pioneered the simple concept that the determinants of sales could be found if someone just looked for them. Of course, economists had always studied demand. But the project of extending demand analysis would fall to marketing researchers, now called marketing scientists for good reason, who saw that in reality the marketing mix was more than price; it was advertising, sales force effort, distribution, promotion, and every other decision variable that potentially affected sales. The bibliography of this book supports the notion that the academic research in marketing led the way. The journey was difficult, sometimes halting, but ultimately market response research advanced and then insinuated itself into the fabric of modern management.
 

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Contents

RESPONSE MODELS FOR MARKETING MANAGEMENT
3
Modeling Marketing Systems
4
Empirical Response Models
8
Marketing Management Tasks
10
Marketing Information
13
ModelBased Planning and Forecasting
16
Plan of the Book
19
MARKETS DATA AND SALES DRIVERS
23
Univariate Time Series Models
262
Model Identification and Estimation
269
Evolution vs Stationarity
279
MULTIPLE MARKETING TIME SERIES
285
The Transfer Function Model
286
Multivariate Persistence
298
Incorporating Longterm Equilibrium Conditions
303
Diagnosing LongTerm Marketing Strategic Scenarios
305

Markets
24
Data
25
Response Measures and Drivers
48
Aggregation
70
Road Map of Market Response Modeling Techniques
75
MARKET RESPONSE IN STATIONARY MARKETS
87
DESIGN OF STATIC RESPONSE MODELS
89
Relations Among Variables
90
Functional Forms
94
Aggregation of Relations
129
DESIGN OF DYNAMIC RESPONSE MODELS
139
Specification Issues in Dynamic Models
140
DiscreteTime Models of Carryover
142
Shape of the Response Function Revisited
156
Reaction Functions
166
Temporal Aggregation Revisited
173
Marketing Models and Prior Knowledge
178
PARAMETER ESTIMATION AND MODEL TESTING
183
Classification of Variables
184
Estimation
185
Testing
201
Flexible Functional Forms
225
Model Selection
229
Confirmatory vs Exploratory Data Analysis
240
MARKET RESPONSE IN EVOLVING MARKETS
249
SINGLE MARKETING TIME SERIES
251
Why Analyze Single Marketing Time Series?
252
The Components of a Time Series
253
Empirical Causal Ordering
309
On Using Time Series Analysis
315
MARKETING PROBLEMS WITH ETS
317
EMPIRICAL FINDINGS AND MANAGERIAL INSIGHTS
319
Measuring Marketing Effects
320
Empirical Marketing Generalizations
324
BrandLevel Findings and Generalizations
328
IndustryLevel Findings and Generalizations
350
MAKING MARKETING PLANS AND SALES FORECASTS
357
Optimal Marketing Decisions
358
Embedded Competition
367
Forecasting
374
Automatic Forecasting Systems
386
Forecasting with Market Response Models
390
Simulation with Market Response Models
398
Combining Forecasting Methods and Models
399
CONCLUSION
405
IMPLEMENTATION
407
Nature of Implementation
408
Factors Affecting Implementation
412
The Demand for Market Response Models
420
BIBLIOGRAPHY
427
AUTHOR INDEX
481
COMPANYBRAND INDEX
489
INDUSTRYCATEGORY PRODUCT INDEX
491
SUBJECT INDEX
493
Copyright

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Popular passages

Page 436 - Seemingly Unrelated Regression and the Demand for Automobiles of Different Sizes, 1965-75: A Disaggregate Approach," Journal of Business 51 (1978): 243-262.
Page 433 - TC (1995) The impacts of brand and generic advertising on meat demand, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 77.
Page 442 - Toward a Formal Theory of Marketing Exchanges," in Conceptual and Theoretical Developments in Marketing, OC Ferrell, Stephen W. Brown, and Charles W. Lamb, Jr., eds. Chicago: American Marketing Association, 431-47. Baxter, Leslie A. (1979), "Self-Disclosure as a Relationship Disengagement Strategy," Human Communication Research.
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Page 438 - How big is the random walk component in GNP?, Journal of Political Economy 96, 893 920.

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About the author (2003)

Parsons is professor of marketing at Georgia Institute of Technology's Dupree College of Management. He received his S.B. degree in chemical engineering from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and his M.S.I.A. and Ph.D. degrees in industrial administration with a specialization in marketing from Purdue University's Krannert School. He has taught at Indiana University and the Claremont Graduate School, and has been a visiting scholar at M.I.T., a Fulbright-Hays Senior Scholar at Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, a visiting professor at INSEAD, the Norwegian School of Marketing, and U.C.L.A., an Advertising Educational Foundation Visiting Professor at Anheuse-Busch. He is an expert on market response models, and his main interest is in marketing productivity.

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