Market Disequilibria and Inflation in Uzbekistan, 1994-2000
World Bank, Development Economics Senior Vice Presidency, Development Data Group, 2003 - Economias en transicion - Uzbekistan - 25 pages
Ranaweera develops and applies a macroeconomic framework to ascertain the influence of domestic disequilibria and external shocks on inflation dynamics in Uzbekistan. Using quarterly data for the period 1994:01 to 2000:03, he estimates several "long-run" relationships for the goods, money, and foreign exchange markets of Uzbekistan which are characterized by multiple exchange rates, import restrictions, and other domestic administrative controls. The empirical estimates, which use error correction mechanisms for different markets, show that domestic monetary and output developments, and changes in the official exchange rate compared with the parallel market rate have had a significant influence on the short-run behavior of the foreign exchange market in Uzbekistan. Furthermore, disequilibria in the product and money markets are the major forces driving short-run inflation dynamics in Uzbekistan. It should be noted that the study has been constrained by both the quantity and the quality of quarterly data available for the Uzbekistan economy. This paper--a product of the Development Data Group, Development Economics Senior Vice Presidency--is part of an ongoing effort in the group to improve quantitative analytical tools for country assistance strategies.
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August 2003 August Belarus Bulgaria change in inflation change in log cointegrated Croatia curb market exchange curb market rate Czech Republic Demand for Money Dependent Variable different markets DLQRM2 dynamics in Uzbekistan empirical estimates error correction mechanisms error correction term Estonia exchange rate regime exert external shocks F-statistic Fixed flexible regimes Flexible/Fixed foreign exchange market foreign exchange supply FSU countries Graph Hodrick-Prescott Filter inflation dynamics lagged one quarter Latvia Lithuania logarithm LYGAP/LQPRDIN(-1 macroeconomic Market Disequilibria market exchange rate market to official money demand Money Equation money market money supply multiple exchange rates official exchange rate official rate output gap parallel market exchange parallel market rate Phillips curve Policy Research proxied QPRDIND quarterly average quarterly data R-squared ratio of curb Republic Research Working Paper Romania RSEQLCUROFI2(-l S.E. of regression Schwarz criterion series Variables names short-run significant influence stabilization program Statistics Transition Economies Uzbekistan economy World Bank