Measuring Illegal Border Crossing Between Ports of Entry: An Assessment of Four Promising Methods
The U.S. Department of Homeland Security is responsible for controlling the flow of goods and people across the U.S. border, but compelling methods for producing estimates of the total flow of illicit goods or border crossings do not yet exist. This paper describes four innovative approaches to estimating the total flow of illicit border crossings between ports of entry. Each approach is sufficiently promising to warrant further attention.
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CHAPTER ONEWhy Estimate Flow?
CHAPTER TWOFour Promising Methods
apprehension data attempt to cross border control efforts border control performance Border Protection border security border segments Calif coyote services cross the border crossing attempt Customs and Border Defense Center Department of Homeland deterrent effects discouraged Drug Control Policy effectiveness of border EMIF entered the country estimating flow flow of illegal flow of migrants Government Accountability Office Homeland Security illegal border crossings illegal crossers illegal immigrants illegal migrants illicit border crossings improved capture-recapture methods increase in apprehensions instance International Trade Administration inverse probability Mexican migrant community migrants apprehended National Drug Control number of apprehensions number of crossers ONDCP Passel percent Pew Hispanic Center ports of entry Predd probability of apprehension proportion RAND Corporation regions respondent-driven sampling respondents sampling of border Santa Monica Security and Defense September 20 stock and flow stratified sampling synthetic modeling total flow total number U.S. border U.S. Customs U.S. Department United