Metropolitan Travel Forecasting: Current Practice and Future Direction -- Special Report 288

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TRB Special Report 288, Metropolitan Travel Forecasting: Current Practice and Future Direction, examines metropolitan travel forecasting models that provide public officials with information to inform decisions on major transportation system investments and policies. The report explores what improvements may be needed to the models and how federal, state, and local agencies can achieve them. According to the committee that produced the report, travel forecasting models in current use are not adequate for many of today's necessary planning and regulatory uses.

 

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Contents

INTRODUCTION
15
Report Organization and Approach
17
FORECASTING METROPOLITAN TRAVEL
19
MPO Planning and Travel Demand Forecasting Models
23
Expanded Requirements for Metropolitan Travel Modeling
26
Summary Findings
31
INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK FOR TRAVEL DEMAND MODELING
35
State Transportation Agencies
38
Inherent Weaknesses of Current Models
67
Errors Introduced by Modeling Practice
72
Lack or Questionable Reliability of Data
75
Biases Arising from the Institutional Climate
81
Summary Findings and Recommendations
84
ADVANCING THE STATE OF THE PRACTICE
90
Advanced Modeling Practices
92
TRANSIMS
98

Combined Efforts of STAs and MPOs
39
Summary Findings and Recommendations
43
CURRENT STATE OF THE PRACTICE
46
WebBased Survey
47
MPO Interviews
54
Matching the Model to the Context
59
Summary Findings and Recommendations
61
SHORTCOMINGS OF CURRENT FORECASTING PROCESSES
65
Experience with Advanced Practice
100
Obstacles to Model Improvements
104
Model Research Development and Implementation
107
Summary Findings and Recommendations
114
THE PACE OF CHANGE AND INNOVATION
122
COMMITTEE STATEMENT OF TASK
125
STUDY COMMITTEE BIOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION
127
Copyright

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