Modeling the External Risks of Airports for Policy Analysis
Despite the improving safety record of commercial aviation over the last decades, crashes still occur. These include the October 1992 crash of an El Al freight airliner into an apartment building near Amsterdam, killing more than 40 people and motivating the study behind this report. While airports and airlines in Western Europe undergo expansion and consolidation, the opening of Eastern Europe has increased the number of East-West flights, added new airlines, and forced potentially dangerous interfaces between East-West air control systems, differing aircraft maintenance and training standards, and aircraft of different technological capability. This report describes the mathematical model SAGE-A (Safety Assessment of the Ground Environment of Airports), which was developed as a general tool to evaluate the crash risk to populations living in close proximity to airports and to evaluate various policy options for mitigating this risk.
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INTRODUCTION v OOO 1OU1Pb ItM
DETAILED MODEL DESCRIPTION
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accident data accident rate affect aggregate aircraft crash aircraft type airlines airport extemal risk amt ﬂight amtqr ﬂights Boeing Boeing Commercial Airplane business and nonbusiness carriers components computational crash location crash probability crash risk crash sites described determine dispersion Distribution of Takeoffs Douglas Aircraft Company expected number exponential distribution extemal safety factors ﬂight crashes ﬂight operations ﬂight path flight phase ﬂight routing grid cell group risk histogram hull loss accidents impact area incorporate businesses increasing individual risk inﬂuence input Intemational Lopik Medium million departures mortality rate nonbusiness hours number of fatalities number of individuals operational data passengers phase of ﬂight policy options population density population grid probability distribution Probability of crash Q Changes Q Factors quantitative RAND reﬂected reR qeQ Risk Estimation risk measures runway centerline Runways in Percentages SAGE-A model Schiphol Airport SID or STAR specific airport stochastic takeoff and landing third-party risk total number types of aircraft uncertainty