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3-parameter rule additive uncertainty adjustment analysis average Bank of Canada bank's base-case Batini behaviour Brainard central bank changes coefficients conservative costs deviation of inflation dynamic economy effects efficient frontier equation error estimated exogenous federal funds rate Federal Reserve Figure filter forecast horizon forward-looking IFB rules inflation expectations inflation forecast inflation from target inflation rate inflation target inflation variability lagged Laxton learning linear loss function macroeconomic matrix model-consistent monetary authority Monetary Policy Rules multiplicative uncertainty NAIRU nominal interest rate optimal policy optimal rule output variability paper parameter uncertainty percent percentage points performance period Phillips curve policy credibility policy instrument policy response policymakers potential output rate of inflation rational expectations real exchange rate real interest rate reduced regime relative Reserve Bank RMSD shocks simple Smets stabilisation standard deviation steady-state stochastic simulations structure Svensson Taylor rule tion transmission mechanism unemployment vector weight Zealand