Money, Capital Formation and Economic Growth: International Comparison with Time Series Analysis
This book presents new methods for resolving important puzzles in macro-dynamic analysis; firstly detecting causal relations among changing dynamic variables, and secondly estimating the divisions of nominal income change into output change and price level change. The first topic is the basis of analysis of economic growth and business cycle phenomena, and as such has significant policy implications both in the medium and long term, for economic growth and development. The second topic is a quest for Milton Freidman's "missing equations;" since this topic is vital for any analysis of inflation and output growth, and builds on Philips' curve phenomena, it will have important consequences for current policy discussions. Amano builds on careful empirical analyses, examining data from different countries and periods.
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Appendix business cycle capita output capita real capital formation causal directions causality patterns causality results changes chapter coefficient of determination cointegrated relations cointegrating vectors cointegration matrix consumer price index Econometrics economic growth economically plausible elasticity of output error-correction mechanisms estimation EtgPt+1 excess demand exports financial structure financial variable firm’s GDP deflator gPet+1 Granger causality growth rate h(Qt Hence heteroskedasticity hypothesis implies inflation rate investment Japan Kalman filter labor loading factors lscp lsmp Luintel meaningful cointegration missing equation Model money supply NAIRU NAIRU and potential natural rate nominal income elasticity null number of cointegrations Okun coefficient Okun’s Law output growth p-value period Pesaran and Shin Phillips curve Postwar USA potential output Prewar UK price level random walk rate of unemployment ratio rational expectations real GDP regression restrictions serial correlation three countries trace statistics trend UK’s unit root US’s yields