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MATHEMATICAL MODELS OF PERIODICITY
PERIODICITY AND TRADE CYCLE THEORY
OBSERVATION AND MEASUREMENT OF PERIODICITY
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adjustment aggregate autocorrelation average British economy British trade cycle business cycle capacity utilisation cent Chapter coefficient competitiveness complex roots correlogram costs Cycle length cyclical behaviour damping data series demand described discussed downturn dynamic econometric Edited effect endogenous equilibrium error models error term estimated equations example exchange rate exogenous variables explain periodicity exports first-order fiscal policy fixed investment fluctuations frequency Implied cycle quarters included incomes policy indicator series industrial output Institute Economic Institute Economic Review interaction interpreted involved kind lag operator lagged values level of output macroeconomic models mathematical monetary policy National Institute Economic nevertheless nominal interest rates observations parameters path of output peak periodi possible predictable produce R. C. O. MATTHEWS rate of inflation rational expectations reason regression relationship relatively reported second-order difference equation simulations spectral statistical suggest theoretical tion trade-cycle theory trend trough turning points unemployment United Kingdom variation world inflation